The sudden stratospheric warming in January 2021

Using the ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature and sea ice observations, and the real-time multivariate Madden-Julian index, this study explores a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) in January 2021, its favorable conditions, and the near surface impact. Wavenumbers 1 and 2 alternately contributed to the total eddy heat flux from mid-December 2020 to late January 2021, and the wavenumber 2 during the onset period nearly split the stratospheric polar vortex. In mid-December 2020 and during the 2021 New Year period (1-5 January 2021), a blocking developed over the Urals, which enhanced the local ridge and the climatological wavenumber 2. Composite results confirm that the Arctic sea ice loss in autumn and La Nina favor the deepening of the high latitude North Pacific low and the increase of the Urals height ridge, which together enhance the planetary waves and hence disturb the stratospheric polar vortex. However, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics was dormant in mid-to-late December 2020 and early January 2021, and the well-established statistical relationship between the MJO convection over the western Pacific and the SSW is not applicable to this special case. The cold air outbreak in China during the 2021 New Year period before the January 2021 SSW onset is not explained by the SSW signal which developed in the stratosphere. In contrast, the downward-propagating signal reached the near surface in mid-February 2021, which may contribute to the cold air outbreak in US and may help to explain the extreme coldness of Texas in middle February.

Automated summary

Utilizing ERA5 reanalysis, sea surface temperature and sea ice observations, and real-time multivariate Madden-Julian index, this study investigates a sudden stratospheric warming (SSW) event in January 2021, focusing on its onset, favorable conditions, and near surface impacts. The study finds that a combination of factors such as wavenumbers 1 and 2 contributing to total eddy heat flux, a blocking over the Urals, and Arctic sea ice loss play crucial roles in disrupting the stratospheric polar vortex and leading to extreme weather events in various regions. Additionally, the study highlights how the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) in the tropics, while dormant during certain periods, can also contribute to the development of cold air outbreaks at the surface.