Multivariate modeling of pan evaporation in monthly temporal resolution using a hybrid evolutionary data-driven method (case study: Urmia Lake and Gavkhouni basins)

Evaporation is an important meteorological variable that has a great impact on water resources. In the current research, climatology data, and seasonal coefficient have been used to estimate monthly pan evaporation (E-pan) for 2005-2018 study years at four selected stations of the Urmia Lake basin with Dsa and six selected stations of Gavkhouni basin with Bsk climate categories, in Iran. Estimation of monthly E-pan was performed using data-driven methods such as artificial neural networks (ANNs), adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS), and gene expression programming (GEP) as well as wavelet-hybrids (WANN, WANFIS, and WGEP). Based on the evaluation criteria, the WGEP model performance was better than the other models in estimating the monthly E-pan. The results indicated that WGEP and ANN are the best and poorest models for all stations without affecting the climate condition of basins. The values of RMSE for WGEP model for stations of Urmia Lake and Gavkhouni basins were varied from 15.839 to 26.727 and 20.651 to 70.318, respectively. Also, the values of RMSE for ANN model for stations of Urmia Lake and Gavkhouni basins were varied from 29.397 to 38.452 and 30.635 to 85.237, respectively. The model's performance was improved as a result of considering the data noise elimination and applying seasonal coefficient to estimate E-pan of various climatic conditions. This study with presenting mathematical equations for estimating monthly Epan has a significant impact on the management and planning of water resources policymakers in the future.

Automated summary

This study estimated monthly pan evaporation in the Urmia Lake and Gavkhouni basins in Iran using various data-driven methods and found that the WGEP model performed the best in estimating the evaporation. By considering data noise elimination and applying seasonal coefficient, the model's performance was improved, which has significant implications for future water resources management and planning decisions.