Fossil Energy in the Framework of Sustainable Development: Analysis of Prospects and Development of Forecast Scenarios

In the next 20 years, the fossil energy must become a guarantor of the sustainable development of the energy sector for future generations. Significant threats represent hurdles in this transition. This study identified current global trends in the energy sector and the prospects for the development of energy until 2035. The importance of risk assessment in scenario forecasting based on expert judgments was proven. Three contrasting scenarios, #StayHome, #StayAlone, and #StayEffective, for the development of fossil energy, all based on comprehensive analysis of global risks by expert survey and factor analysis, were developed. It was concluded that fossil energy is mandatory with integration of advanced technologies at every stage of the production of traditional energy and of renewable energy as an integral part of the modern energy sector. Based on the results of the study, nine ambitious programs for the development of sustainable energy are presented. They require the creation and the utilization of a single interactive digital platform adapted to this purpose. It is a passport mandatory for the flexible interaction of energy production, its transmission, and its consumption in the perspective of having a future sustainable, reliable, and secured energy sector.

Automated summary

This study highlights the importance of fossil energy as a guarantee for sustainable development in the energy sector for future generations, while also identifying significant challenges in this transition. Through expert scenario forecasting, the importance of risk assessment was proven. The integration of advanced technologies with fossil energy and the inclusion of renewable energy as part of the modern energy sector were emphasized based on comprehensive global risk analysis.