期刊
ECOLOGY LETTERS
卷 24, 期 11, 页码 2406-2417出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1111/ele.13862
关键词
carry-over effects; competition; delay-differential equations; developmental plasticity; environmental change; phenotypic plasticity; population dynamics; reaction norms; stage-structured modelling; trait variation
类别
资金
- NERC Centre for Doctoral Training in Quantitative and Modelling skills in Ecology and Evolution (QMEE) [NE/P012345/1]
- Scottish Government's Rural and Environment Science and Analytical Services Division (RESAS)
- Leverhulme Research Fellowship [RF-018-577\9]
- NERC [NE/T004193/1]
- Natural Environment Research Council [NE/T004193/1] Funding Source: researchfish
Predicting complex species-environment interactions is crucial, but the effects of phenotypic plasticity on population adaptation are difficult to predict directly.
Predicting complex species-environment interactions is crucial for guiding conservation and mitigation strategies in a dynamically changing world. Phenotypic plasticity is a mechanism of trait variation that determines how individuals and populations adapt to changing and novel environments. For individuals, the effects of phenotypic plasticity can be quantified by measuring environment-trait relationships, but it is often difficult to predict how phenotypic plasticity affects populations. The assumption that environment-trait relationships validated for individuals indicate how populations respond to environmental change is commonly made without sufficient justification. Here we derive a novel general mathematical framework linking trait variation due to phenotypic plasticity to population dynamics. Applying the framework to the classical example of Nicholson's blowflies, we show how seemingly sensible predictions made from environment-trait relationships do not generalise to population responses. As a consequence, trait-based analyses that do not incorporate population feedbacks risk mischaracterising the effect of environmental change on populations.
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