期刊
ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
卷 31, 期 8, 页码 -出版社
WILEY
DOI: 10.1002/eap.2442
关键词
approximate Bayesian computation; Bayesian inference; colony feeding study; colony models; Honey bees (Apis mellifera); pesticides; risk assessment
资金
- United States Department of Energy [DW8992298301]
- United States Environmental Protection Agency [DW8992298301]
- USDA-ARS
Honey bees play a crucial role in agricultural pollination but face threats from various stressors, including pesticides. Agent-based models simulating honey bee colony dynamics may help bridge the gap between individual and colony effects of pesticides. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model developed by USEPA and USDA shows promise in simulating colony responses to multiple stressors, providing insights into pesticide toxicity to individual bees.
Honey bees are crucial pollinators for agricultural crops but are threatened by a multitude of stressors including exposure to pesticides. Linking our understanding of how pesticides affect individual bees to colony-level responses is challenging because colonies show emergent properties based on complex internal processes and interactions among individual bees. Agent-based models that simulate honey bee colony dynamics may be a tool for scaling between individual and colony effects of a pesticide. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) are developing the VarroaPop + Pesticide model, which simulates the dynamics of honey bee colonies and how they respond to multiple stressors, including weather, Varroa mites, and pesticides. To evaluate this model, we used Approximate Bayesian Computation to fit field data from an empirical study where honey bee colonies were fed the insecticide clothianidin. This allowed us to reproduce colony feeding study data by simulating colony demography and mortality from ingestion of contaminated food. We found that VarroaPop + Pesticide was able to fit general trends in colony population size and structure and reproduce colony declines from increasing clothianidin exposure. The model underestimated adverse effects at low exposure (36 mu g/kg), however, and overestimated recovery at the highest exposure level (140 mu g/kg), for the adult and pupa endpoints, suggesting that mechanisms besides oral toxicity-induced mortality may have played a role in colony declines. The VarroaPop + Pesticide model estimates an adult oral LD50 of 18.9 ng/bee (95% CI 10.1-32.6) based on the simulated feeding study data, which falls just above the 95% confidence intervals of values observed in laboratory toxicology studies on individual bees. Overall, our results demonstrate a novel method for analyzing colony-level data on pesticide effects on bees and making inferences on pesticide toxicity to individual bees.
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