Future surface temperatures over Europe according to CMIP6 climate projections: an analysis with original and bias-corrected data

Future changes in the mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature over Europe are investigated according to CMIP6 future climate projections. All the temperature variables are projected to increase across Europe particularly in northern and southernmost latitudes, where according to SSP5-8.5 the warming can reach 2-3 (5-6) degrees C at the middle (end) of the current century. The warming is particularly strong in Northern (Mediterranean) areas in winter (summer) seasons. The occurrence of hot days (mean temperature > 30 degrees C) is projected to increase in all southern Europe by the end of the century (> 40-60 days/year), particularly in the southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula and Turkey. Increases in the occurrence of very hot days (maximum temperature > 40 degrees C) are projected in the central-southern areas of the Iberian Peninsula (30-40 days/year) and southern Turkey (> 50 days/year) in the end of the century. Tropical nights are expected to increase throughout the century in all Europe (except the northernmost latitudes), particularly at southern Europe for the 2081-2100 period (50-80 nights/year). Frost days (minimum temperature < 0 degrees C) are expected to occur less in all Europe towards the end of the century, with less than 50-70 days/year in central Europe and even less in Scandinavia and north-eastern Russia.

Automated summary

According to CMIP6 future climate projections, the mean, maximum, and minimum surface temperature over Europe are all projected to increase, particularly in northern and southernmost latitudes. Hot days and tropical nights are expected to increase in southern Europe, while frost days are expected to decrease towards the end of the century across Europe.