Post treatment NLR is a predictor of response to immune checkpoint inhibitor therapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background In view of the fact that peripheral blood parameters have been reported as predictors of immunotherapy to various cancers, this study aimed to determine the predictors of response to anti-programmed death-1 (anti-PD-1) therapy in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) from peripheral blood parameters. Methods A retrospective analysis was conducted to investigate the predictive value of peripheral blood parameters including neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio (NLR), platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), monocyte-to-lymphocyte ratio (MLR) and systemic immune-inflammation index (SII) in the response to anti-PD-1 antibody treatment. 119 ESCC patients receiving combined treatment including anti-PD-1 antibody were enrolled in this study. Results The median progression-free survival (PFS) of all ESCC patients was 3.73 months. PFS rate in ESCC patients with low NLR at 6 weeks post treatment was higher than patients with high NLR (HR = 2.097, 95% CI 0.996-4.417, P = 0.027). However, PFS rate in ESCC patients with low NLR at baseline (HR = 1.060, 95% CI 0.524-2.146, P = 0.869) or 3 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.293, 95% CI 0.628-2.663, P = 0.459) was comparable with high NLR. And no statistically different was found in PFS rate between low PLR and high PLR at baseline (HR = 0.786, 95% CI 0.389-1.589, P = 0.469), 3 weeks post treatment (HR = 0.767, 95% CI 0.379-1.552, P = 0.452) or 6 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.272, 95% CI 0.624-2.594, P = 0.488) in ESCC patients. PFS rate was also comparable between low MLR and high MLR at baseline (HR = 0.826, 95% CI 0.408-1.670, P = 0.587), 3 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.209, 95% CI 0.590-2.475, P = 0.580) or 6 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.199, 95% CI 0.586-2.454, P = 0.596). PFS rate was similar between patients with low SII and high SII at baseline (HR = 1.120, 95% CI 0.554-2.264, P = 0.749), 3 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.022, 95% CI 0.500-2.089, P = 0.951) and 6 weeks post treatment (HR = 1.759, 95% CI 0.851-3.635, P = 0.097). Conclusions NLR at 6 weeks post treatment is a predictor of the response to anti-PD-1 treatment in patients with ESCC.

Automated summary

This study aimed to identify predictors of response to anti-PD-1 therapy in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) patients from peripheral blood parameters. The results showed that a low NLR at 6 weeks post treatment was associated with higher progression-free survival (PFS) rate in ESCC patients, but there was no significant difference in PFS rate based on NLR, PLR, MLR, or SII at baseline or 3 weeks post treatment.