期刊
ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
卷 255, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC
DOI: 10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105533
关键词
Amundsen Sea Low; CMIP6; Historical Fidelity; Future Projection; Global Warming Levels
资金
- Korea Polar Research Institute [PE21030]
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [42022034, 91837101, 41830536]
- Startup Foundation for Introducing Talent of NUIST
- National Key R&D Program of China [2018YFA0605901]
- High Performance Computing Center of Nanjing University of Information Science Technology
- Korea Polar Research Institute of Marine Research Placement (KOPRI) [PE21030] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
The study conducted a comprehensive evaluation of the climatological characteristics of ASL using CMIP6 models and projected the changes in ASL under future global warming scenarios. The results indicate that CMIP6 models have shown significant improvements in simulating the absolute depth and location of the ASL center.
The realistic simulation and projection of the Amundsen Sea Low (ASL) are essential for understanding the Antarctic climate and global climate change. Using 14 models that participated in phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), this study evaluates the climatological characteristics of ASL with comparison to the ERA5 reanalysis and their CMIP5 versions and assesses the future change of ASL under 1.5 ?C?4 ?C global warming. The climatological spatial distribution of ASL is captured reasonably but with underestimated intensity by CMIP6 multi-model ensemble (MME). Among the CMIP6 models, EC-Earth3 has most accurate representation of ASL according to the pattern correlation and biases. The seasonal variation of the ASL depth and location are found to be reasonably reproduced by the CMIP6 models. CMIP6 MME has higher skills in simulating the seasonal cycle of absolute depth and zonal migration of the ASL center. The relative central pressure of ASL is underestimated in all seasons and there is a 4-degree northward shift bias of the ASL center in austral winter, which were also evident in the CMIP5. The semiannual cycle of ASL absolute depth with two deepest pressure in April and October is also captured by CMIP6 MME. However, the observed peak of pressure between the two months occurs in June, while it delays one month and appears until July in CMIP6 MME. Compared with CMIP5, CMIP6 MME exhibit evident reduced uncertainties and overall improvement in simulating absolute depth and location of the ASL center, which might be attributed to models? capability of representing the location of Southern Hemisphere westerlies, while the biases in relative depth become even large in CMIP6 MME. In response to future warming from 1.5 ?C to 4 ?C above pre-industrial levels, the absolute depth of ASL will very likely deepen with larger amplitude in all seasons, while the relative depth might enhance only under high-level warmer world in austral autumn to winter. The CMIP6 MME also projects that the ASL will shift poleward constantly in austral summer and migrate southwestward during austral autumn with the rising global mean temperature. Among all the seasons, the most prominent future changes in intensity and location of ASL are found in autumn. The enhancement and poleward movement of ASL could also be identified during the Ross Sea ice advance season under 1.5 ?C?4 ?C global warming. The results reveal the potential of CMIP6 models in the ASL study and the impact of ASL on Antarctic climate under different global warming levels.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据