Market impacts of Farm to Fork: Reducing agricultural input usage

Legislation has been proposed that would change the European Union (EU) agricultural supply chain, including targeted reductions in the use of agricultural inputs. Our results indicate that reducing those inputs (fertilizer, pesticides, land, and antimicrobials) could lead to a reduction in the EU agricultural production by 12%, less competitiveness in export markets, and negative impacts to consumer budgets and societal welfare. If the EU were to implement technological improvements, the impacts would be lessened; however, the necessary improvement in technology will require additional investment in research and development. Based on historical trends, these improvements are projected to take up to 27 years.

Automated summary

Proposed legislation to reduce agricultural inputs in the EU could lead to a 12% reduction in agricultural production, decreased competitiveness in export markets, and negative impacts on consumer budgets and societal welfare. Implementing technological improvements could lessen these impacts, but will require additional investment in research and development, which may take up to 27 years based on historical trends.