Influence of the NAO on Wintertime Surface Air Temperature over East Asia: Multidecadal Variability and Decadal Prediction

In this paper, we investigate the influence of the winter NAO on the multidecadal variability of winter East Asian surface air temperature (EASAT) and EASAT decadal prediction. The observational analysis shows that the winter EASAT and East Asian minimum SAT (EAmSAT) display strong in-phase fluctuations and a significant 60-80-year multidecadal variability, apart from a long-term warming trend. The winter EASAT experienced a decreasing trend in the last two decades, which is consistent with the occurrence of extremely cold events in East Asia winters in recent years. The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years with the greatest significant positive correlation at the lead time of 15 years. Further analysis shows that ENSO may affect winter EASAT interannual variability, but does not affect the robust lead relationship between the winter NAO and EASAT. We present the coupled oceanic-atmospheric bridge (COAB) mechanism of the NAO influences on winter EASAT multidecadal variability through its accumulated delayed effect of similar to 15 years on the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) and Africa-Asia multidecadal teleconnection (AAMT) pattern. An NAO-based linear model for predicting winter decadal EASAT is constructed on the principle of the COAB mechanism, with good hindcast performance. The winter EASAT for 2020-34 is predicted to keep on fluctuating downward until similar to 2025, implying a high probability of occurrence of extremely cold events in coming winters in East Asia, followed by a sudden turn towards sharp warming. The predicted 2020/21 winter EASAT is almost the same as the 2019/20 winter.

Automated summary

This study investigates the influence of winter NAO on East Asian surface air temperature, finding a significant correlation and multi-decadal variability. The observed decreasing trend in winter EASAT in recent years suggests a high probability of extremely cold events in East Asia winters. The winter NAO leads the detrended winter EASAT by 12-18 years, with the most significant positive correlation at a lead time of 15 years.