Quantitative Ship Collision Frequency Estimation Models: A Review

Ship collisions are one of the most common types of maritime accidents. Assessing the frequency and probability of ship collisions is of great importance as it provides a cost-effective and practical way to mitigate risk. In this paper, we present a review of quantitative ship collision frequency estimation models for waterway risk assessment, accompanied by a classification of the models and a description of their main modelling characteristics. Models addressing the macroscopic perspective in the estimation of ship collision frequency on waterways are reviewed in this paper with a total of 29 models. We extend the existing classification methodology and group the collected models accordingly. Special attention is given to the criteria used to detect potential ship collision candidates, as well as to causation probability and the correlation of models with real ship collision statistics. Limitations of the existing models and future improvement possibilities are discussed. The paper can be used as a guide to understanding current achievements in this field.

Automated summary

This paper reviews quantitative ship collision frequency estimation models for waterway risk assessment. A total of 29 models are classified and described, with a focus on the criteria for detecting potential collision candidates, causation probability, and correlation with real collision statistics. Limitations of existing models and possibilities for future improvements are discussed.