A scenario-based optimization frame to adjust current strategy for population- economy-resource-environment harmony in an urban agglomeration, China

This study developed a framework incorporating compatibility comparison, uncertain optimization model and scenario analysis (COS) for generating a comprehensive strategy associated with adjusting population employment structure based on industrial transformation (APEI), resource-environmental regulation and technique improvement from the respective of policymaker / government, to confront the hybrid challenge from economic development, resource crisis and environment problem in urban agglomerations (UA). In this COS framework, a Gini coefficient method is used for evaluating the compatibility of resource-environment consumption per unit employed population, which can reflect the current equal or compatible levels between socioeconomic development and resource-environment capacity in various regions in BTHU. Meanwhile, a scenario-based fuzzy-stochastic method with Laplace criterion (SFSL) is embedded into optimization model to handle multiple uncertainties. The developed COS framework has been applied to a real study in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei urban agglomeration (BTHU), China, which is facilitate for the generation of various results (such as population employment structure based on industrial transformation, resource-deficit, excessive emission and economic viability) under scenarios. The obtained results can support a comprehensive strategy for improving the harmony of population, economy, resource and environment in an urban agglomeration.

Automated summary

This study developed a comprehensive strategy framework to address the challenges of economic development, resource crisis, and environmental problems in urban agglomerations. By incorporating compatibility comparison, uncertain optimization model, and scenario analysis, the framework evaluates and handles multiple uncertainties to support the improvement of harmony among population, economy, resource, and environment in urban agglomerations.