Regional Probabilistic Tsunami Hazard Analysis for the Mexican Subduction Zone From Stochastic Slip Models

The Mexican subduction zone is prone to large earthquakes that impact populated coastal and inland cities due to strong shaking and can generate potentially disastrous tsunamis. Even though the population and infrastructure on the Mexican Pacific coast may experience tsunamis, only sparse instrumentation and scarce tsunami observations exist for both, historical and instrumental, records. This study presents a probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis that can provide information for managing and assessing risks in the region. We use ensembles of numerical tsunami simulations to estimate the probability of exceedance of the maximum tsunami amplitudes, considering the contribution of near sources and slip heterogeneities, for return periods of 100, 500, and 1,000 years. According to 7,946 simulated scenarios, the amplitudes can reach up to 9.5 m along the shoreline. Moreover, tsunami hazard maps, curves, and disaggregation analyses reveal critical hazard points along the coasts of the states of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Oaxaca.

Automated summary

The Mexican subduction zone is prone to large earthquakes and potentially disastrous tsunamis, with limited tsunami observations available. This study utilized probabilistic tsunami hazard analysis to estimate maximum tsunami amplitudes and critical hazard points along the coasts of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Guerrero, and Oaxaca.