Variability of Surface Radiation Budget Components Over the US From 1996 to 2019-Has Brightening Ceased?

The record of downwelling solar irradiance and other surface radiation budget components for the U.S. has been extended through 2019 using SURFRAD Network data. Brightening of surface solar irradiance of +7.36 Wm(-2)/decade occurred from 1996 through 2012. In 2013, surface solar radiation sharply decreased to the long-term mean (representing 1996-2019) and remained near that level through 2017. Successive decreases in 2018 and 2019 yielded a dimming trend of -3.90 Wm(-2)/decade after 2012, but with a high uncertainty owing to the observed variability and brief period covered. Individually, all stations but Penn State showed brightening trends consistent with the network average, and surface solar irradiance decreased at all stations after 2012. Total surface net radiation showed similar tendencies but the reversal from increasing to decreasing was more gradual because of the response of surface net longwave to the changing solar input. Aerosol optical depth decreased continuously throughout the tenure of the network but accounted for only 3% of the variability of surface solar irradiance, while cloud fraction explained 62%. The mean cloud fraction was 2.4% greater during the dimming period than the brightening period but showed no trends due to high interannual variability. However, annual anomalies of direct-normal solar radiation, which relate to sun duration and clouds, generally increased to 2012 and then decreased thereafter. Collectively, these results indicate that changing cloud cover was the primary source of brightening and dimming over the U.S. from 1996 to 2019. Plain Language Summary Since the 1980s, it has been known that solar radiation at the surface of the Earth goes through increases (brightening) for two-to-three decades followed by decreases (dimming) over similar periods. These cyclic patterns are not caused by variations in the sun's emission but rather by changes in cloud cover and dust in the atmosphere. Brightening and dimming occur all over the globe. Dimming was documented in the U.S. from the 1950s to about the mid-1980s. In the mid-to-late 1980s, solar radiation at the surface reversed course and increased for more than 20 years. Here, we show that this most recent brightening period in the U.S. ended in 2012. Surface solar radiation decreased over the U.S. after 2013, signaling the possible beginning of a new dimming period. We determined that systematic changes in cloud cover were mostly responsible for these trends and that atmospheric dust played only a minor role. Knowledge of dimming and brightening is useful for research in weather, climate, agriculture, renewable energy, and any other process that responds to systematic changes of solar energy at the surface.

Automated summary

Analysis of surface solar irradiance and radiation budget data in the U.S. shows a period of increasing solar radiation from 1996 to 2012, followed by a decrease starting in 2013, primarily influenced by changes in cloud cover.