Pathways of China's PM2.5 air quality 2015-2060 in the context of carbon neutrality

Clean air policies in China have substantially reduced particulate matter (PM2.5) air pollution in recent years, primarily by curbing end-of-pipe emissions. However, reaching the level of the World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines may instead depend upon the air quality co-benefits of ambitious climate action. Here, we assess pathways of Chinese PM2.5 air quality from 2015 to 2060 under a combination of scenarios that link global and Chinese climate mitigation pathways (i.e. global 2 degrees C- and 1.5 degrees C-pathways, National Determined Contributions (NDC) pledges and carbon neutrality goals) to local clean air policies. We find that China can achieve both its near-term climate goals (peak emissions) and PM2.5 air quality annual standard (35 mu g/m(3)) by 2030 by fulfilling its NDC pledges and continuing air pollution control policies. However, the benefits of end-of-pipe control reductions are mostly exhausted by 2030, and reducing PM2.5 exposure of the majority of the Chinese population to below 10 mu g/m(3) by 2060 will likely require more ambitious climate mitigation efforts such as China's carbon neutrality goals and global 1.5 degrees C-pathways. Our results thus highlight that China's carbon neutrality goals will play a critical role in reducing air pollution exposure to the level of the WHO guidelines and protecting public health.

Automated summary

According to the study, China can achieve its near-term climate goals by 2030 through fulfilling its National Determined Contributions (NDC) pledges and continuing air pollution control policies. However, reducing PM2.5 exposure to below 10 μg/m3 for the majority of the Chinese population by 2060 may require more ambitious climate mitigation efforts, such as China's carbon neutrality goals and global 1.5 degrees C-pathways. The research highlights the critical role of China's carbon neutrality goals in reducing air pollution exposure to the level of the World Health Organization guidelines and protecting public health.