Potential influence of cognitive bias on decision-making in a flood scenario

This study focuses on the possible mathematical correlation between the indexes (Gravelius, flood, and hazard) that characterize the propensity of a territory to suffer flooding, and the potential damage caused to the public. This characterization quantifies the level of threat of flood damage which in turn is combined with the DunningKruger coefficient. The second one is created in this work in order to consider the cognitive influence exerted by decision-makers on the risk perception. This combination allows us to estimate how much the intellectual selfperception of the decision-makers influences the results, thus offering a new perspective for the assessment of natural disaster management. From this estimate, it is possible to establish a different perspective which takes into account the interaction between threat and responsiveness of decision-makers for the projection of damage to human life in the event of a flood.

Automated summary

This study explores the mathematical correlation between indexes characterizing a territory's susceptibility to flooding and the potential damage caused to the public, while also considering the cognitive influence of decision-makers on risk perception. The results offer a new perspective for natural disaster management assessment by estimating the impact of decision-makers' intellectual selfperception on outcomes.