期刊
ELIFE
卷 10, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
eLIFE SCIENCES PUBL LTD
DOI: 10.7554/eLife.65774
关键词
-
类别
资金
- NSERC Vanier Scholarship [608544]
- Canadian Institutes of Health Research (Canadian COVID-19 Rapid Research Fund) [OV4-170360]
- NSERC Senior Industrial Research Chair program
- NSERC Discovery Grant program
- Toronto COVID-19 Action Fund
Analyzing respiratory viral loads of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1, and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09, it was found that the heterogeneity in viral loads is an intrinsic virological factor leading to overdispersion in the transmission of COVID-19. Cases of COVID-19 exhibit broad heterogeneity in transmission risk, with pediatric and asymptomatic infections also being potential sources of transmission.
Background: Which virological factors mediate overdispersion in the transmissibility of emerging viruses remains a long-standing question in infectious disease epidemiology. Methods: Here, we use systematic review to develop a comprehensive dataset of respiratory viral loads (rVLs) of SARS-CoV-2, SARS-CoV-1 and influenza A(H1N1)pdm09. We then comparatively meta-analyze the data and model individual infectiousness by shedding viable virus via respiratory droplets and aerosols. Results: The analyses indicate heterogeneity in rVL as an intrinsic virological factor facilitating greater overdispersion for SARS-CoV-2 in the COVID-19 pandemic than A(H1N1)pdm09 in the 2009 influenza pandemic. For COVID-19, case heterogeneity remains broad throughout the infectious period, including for pediatric and asymptomatic infections. Hence, many COVID-19 cases inherently present minimal transmission risk, whereas highly infectious individuals shed tens to thousands of SARS-CoV-2 virions/min via droplets and aerosols while breathing, talking and singing. Coughing increases the contagiousness, especially in close contact, of symptomatic cases relative to asymptomatic ones. Infectiousness tends to be elevated between 1 and 5 days post-symptom onset. Conclusions: Intrinsic case variation in rVL facilitates overdispersion in the transmissibility of emerging respiratory viruses. Our findings present considerations for disease control in the COVID-19 pandemic as well as future outbreaks of novel viruses.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据