Vaccination strategies against COVID-19 and the diffusion of anti-vaccination views

Misinformation is usually adjusted to fit distinct narratives and propagates rapidly through social networks. False beliefs, once adopted, are rarely corrected. Amidst the COVID-19 crisis, pandemic-deniers and people who oppose wearing face masks or quarantine have already been a substantial aspect of the development of the pandemic. With the vaccine for COVID-19, different anti-vaccine narratives are being created and are probably being adopted by large population groups with critical consequences. Assuming full adherence to vaccine administration, we use a diffusion model to analyse epidemic spreading and the impact of different vaccination strategies, measured with the average years of life lost, in three network topologies (a proximity, a scale-free and a small-world network). Then, using a similar diffusion model, we consider the spread of anti-vaccine views in the network, which are adopted based on a persuasiveness parameter of anti-vaccine views. Results show that even if anti-vaccine narratives have a small persuasiveness, a large part of the population will be rapidly exposed to them. Assuming that all individuals are equally likely to adopt anti-vaccine views after being exposed, more central nodes in the network, which are more exposed to these views, are more likely to adopt them. Comparing years of life lost, anti-vaccine views could have a significant cost not only on those who share them, since the core social benefits of a limited vaccination strategy (reduction of susceptible hosts, network disruptions and slowing the spread of the disease) are substantially shortened.

Automated summary

Misinformation spreads rapidly through social networks, and distrust in COVID-19 vaccines could lead to the failure of vaccination strategies.