期刊
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
卷 769, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.144820
关键词
WEAP; Upper Indus Basin; Unmet water demand; Agricultural growth; Climate-socioeconomic pathway
资金
- Basic Science Research Program of the National Research Foundation of Korea - Ministry of Science, ICT & Future Planning [2020R1A2C2007670]
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2020R1A2C2007670] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
Pakistan relies heavily on water resources from the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin, particularly for irrigation. The study found that external factors such as climate change and socioeconomic growth will lead to discrepancies in water supply and demand, especially in regions with rapid agricultural development. Among the five catchments studied, Astore and Gilgit will face water shortages in all future scenarios.
Pakistan is highly dependent on water resources from the mountainous regions of the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), especially for irrigation. An evaluation framework was developed and applied in this study to understand the variability in surface water availability to agricultural and domestic sectors across various future climate and socioeconomic pathways in five catchments within the UIB (Astore, Gilgit, Hunza, Shigar, and Shyoke). A planning tool named Water Evaluation and Planning (WEAP) was used to understand the dynamics of past and future water demands for multiple future scenarios. We combined three different climate scenarios (representative concentration pathways) with socioeconomic scenarios (shared socioeconomic pathways) of economic development and population and local agricultural land development pathways. The results indicate that the external driving forces of climate change and socioeconomic growth will cause a discrepancy between the supply and demand of water resources in regions with higher socioeconomic growth, particularly those with agricultural development as the dominant external factor. Among the five catchments within the UIB, Astore and Gilgit face a water shortfall in all future scenarios, whereas Shyoke will encounter water deficiencies only in the case of agricultural land development We also demonstrated that the impact of climate change is markedly different in Astore and Gilgit. Over Astore, the impact of precipitation will control the unmet water demands by increasing winter streamflow whereas over Gilgit nonclimatic factors, such as population and agricultural growth, will control future unmet water demands. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据