A risk-based approach for managing hydraulic fracturing-induced seismicity

Risks from induced earthquakes are a growing concern that needs effective management. For hydraulic fracturing of the Eagle Ford shale in southern Texas, we developed a risk-informed strategy for choosing red-light thresholds that require immediate well shut-in. We used a combination of datasets to simulate spatially heterogeneous nuisance and damage impacts. Simulated impacts are greater in the northeast of the play and smaller in the southwest. This heterogeneity is driven by concentrations of population density. Spatially varying red-light thresholds normalized on these impacts [moment magnitude (M-w) 2.0 to 5.0] are fairer and safer than a single threshold applied over a broad area. Sensitivity tests indicate that the forecast maximum magnitude is the most influential parameter. Our method provides a guideline for traffic light protocols and managing induced seismicity risks.

Automated summary

The study developed a risk-informed strategy for selecting red-light thresholds for immediate well shut-in during hydraulic fracturing operations in the Eagle Ford shale in southern Texas. By simulating impacts, it was found that impacts were greater in the northeast and smaller in the southwest of the area, driven by concentrations of population density. The method provides guidance for managing induced seismicity risks through traffic light protocols.