Work disability and the Northern Irish Troubles

In this paper, we examine the labour market implications of permanent illness or injury from conflict among civilians. From 1969 to 1998, Northern Ireland experienced a violent ethnopolitical conflict characterized by terrorist bombing campaigns, sectarian killings and armed forces patrolling the streets. The consequences of this period for current high work disability rates are disputed by the main political parties. We address this question using a new high-quality dataset. Potential endogeneity and reverse causation issues are addressed using the intensity of conflict-related deaths as instruments. We find clear evidence that conflict has increased work disability by 28% points. The main doctor-diagnosed medical condition mediating this effect is mental ill health.

Automated summary

The violent conflict in Northern Ireland from 1969 to 1998 increased work disability rates by 28%, with mental ill health being the main mediating factor.