The value of 18F-FDG PET before and after induction chemotherapy for the early prediction of a poor pathologic response to subsequent preoperative chemoradiotherapy in oesophageal adenocarcinoma

Purpose The purpose of our study was to determine the value of F-18-FDG PET before and after induction chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma for the early prediction of a poor pathologic response to subsequent preoperative chemoradiotherapy (CRT). Methods In 70 consecutive patients receiving a three-step treatment strategy of induction chemotherapy and preoperative chemoradiotherapy for oesophageal adenocarcinoma, F-18-FDG PET scans were performed before and after induction chemotherapy (before preoperative CRT). SUVmax, SUVmean, metabolic tumour volume (MTV), and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) were determined at these two time points. The predictive potential of (the change in) these parameters for a poor pathologic response, progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS) was assessed. Results A poor pathologic response after induction chemotherapy and preoperative CRT was found in 27 patients (39 %). Patients with a poor pathologic response experienced less of a reduction in TLG after induction chemotherapy (p < 0.01). The change in TLG was predictive for a poor pathologic response at a threshold of -26 % (sensitivity 67 %, specificity 84 %, accuracy 77 %, PPV 72 %, NPV 80 %), yielding an area-under-the-curve of 0.74 in ROC analysis. Also, patients with a decrease in TLG lower than 26 % had a significantly worse PFS (p = 0.02), but not OS (p = 0.18). Conclusions F-18-FDG PET appears useful to predict a poor pathologic response as well as PFS early after induction chemotherapy in patients with oesophageal adenocarcinoma undergoing a three-step treatment strategy. As such, the early F-18-FDG PET response after induction chemotherapy could aid in individualizing treatment by modification orwithdrawal of subsequent preoperative CRT in poor responders.