High-fidelity broadband prediction of regional seismic response: a hybrid coupling of physics-based synthetic simulation and empirical Green functions

The prediction of the seismic response of critical structures is highly sensitive to many aspects, among which the earthquake source and the geological setting are prominent. The related uncertainty issues must be taken into account in seismic risk mitigation studies, for example through the evaluation of several realizations of a future earthquake scenario. This aspect is crucial when addressing vulnerability studies at a regional scale. When opting for physical-based numerical simulations (PBS), however, the computational burden increases along with the expected degree of fidelity, making it difficult to evaluate more than a few dozens of alternatives. To cope with this disadvantage, in this work an alternative method is proposed, which exploits a rather low number of synthetic earthquake simulations and combines them with the empirical Green function (EGF) method, to finally generate thousands of alternative yet realistic seismic response of the site of interest. This hybrid strong motion predictions benefit of both (i) PBS high fidelity and (ii) data assimilation of strong ground motion records in the seismic area of interest, via EGF method, producing broadband synthetics at a relative cheap computational price. The power of the hybrid method is tested on a real case scenario, embodied by the ground-shaking prediction at the nuclear site of Cadarache, in the surroundings of the fault of Middle Durance, in South-Eastern France. Thousands of broadband (0-15 Hz) hybrid synthetic seismic response are generated, associated with different fault parameters (EGF method) and based upon a few key physics-based simulations, accurate up to 5 Hz.

Automated summary

The prediction of seismic response for critical structures is sensitive to earthquake source and geological setting. Uncertainty issues must be considered in mitigation studies, with physical-based numerical simulations increasing computational burden. A proposed alternative method combines synthetic earthquake simulations with the empirical Green function method to generate realistic seismic response, tested on a real case scenario at the Cadarache nuclear site in France.