期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 48, 期 8, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2020GL091439
关键词
climate change; climate modeling; model bias; ocean heat uptake; ocean mixing; surface heat flux
资金
- Australian Government
- Australian Research Council (ARC) Centre of Excellence for Climate Extremes
- Centre for Southern Hemisphere Oceans Research
- ARC Discovery Project scheme [DP190101173]
The study reveals that the ocean has absorbed a significant amount of heat, which can be traced back to warmer regions, with the cooling bias in the models traced back to inaccuracies in sea surface temperatures and heat fluxes.
The ocean has absorbed approximately 90% of the accumulated heat in the climate system since 1970. As global warming accelerates, understanding ocean heat content changes and tracing these to surface heat input is increasingly important. We introduce a novel framework by organizing the ocean into temperature-percentiles from warmest to coldest, allowing us to trace ocean temperature changes to changes in surface fluxes and mixing. Applying this framework to observations and historical CMIP6 simulations, we find that 50 +/- 6% of surface heat uptake between 1970 and 2014 is confined to isotherms in the coldest 90% of the ocean volume. These isotherms outcrop over only 23% of the ocean's surface area in the sub-polar regions, implying a disproportionately large heat input per unit area. Additionally, a cooling bias in the CMIP6 models is traced to inaccurate sea surface temperatures and surface heat fluxes into the warmest 5%-20% of the ocean volume.
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