期刊
GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
卷 48, 期 11, 页码 -出版社
AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION
DOI: 10.1029/2021GL093231
关键词
Earthquake cycles; geodetic observations; interseismic deformation; relative displacement deficit; strike-slip faults; viscoelastic rheology
资金
- NSERC [RGPIN-2016-03738, 2017-04029]
Although the importance of viscoelasticity in the evolution of crustal stress/strain is widely acknowledged, earthquake potential assessment still heavily relies on elastic models. Research suggests that seismic readiness can be better represented using displacement deficit.
Despite the importance of viscoelasticity in the evolution of crustal stress/strain being widely recognized, the interpretation of interseismic geodetic measurements for assessing earthquake potential is still based overwhelmingly on elastic models. The reasons for this disparity include conflating deformation rates with deformation itself and the lack of a succinct representation of the seismic readiness of a locked fault in a viscoelastic Earth. Using a classical viscoelastic model for strike-slip faults, we reiterate the commonly overlooked message that, if the recurrence interval is long, most of the strain energy for the next earthquake accrues early in the cycle, and low strain rates later in the cycle by no means indicate diminished rupture potential. Fault stress stays near failure for much of the late interseismic period which may explain why slow slip-rate faults have more variable recurrence intervals than fast slip-rate faults. We propose to use displacement deficit instead of slip deficit to represent seismic readiness.
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