Modelling drivers of Brazilian agricultural change in a telecoupled world

Increasing global demand for agricultural commodities has driven local land use/cover change (LUCC) and agricultural production across Brazil during the 21st century. Modelling tools are needed to help understand the range of possible outcomes due to these ?telecoupled? global-to-local relationships, given future political, economic and environmental uncertainties. Here, we present CRAFTY-Brazil, a LUCC model representing production of multiple agricultural commodities that accounts for spatially explicit (e.g., land access) and temporally contingent (e.g., agricultural debt) processes of importance across our nearly four million km2 Brazilian study area. We calibrate the model calibration for 2001?2018, and run tests and scenarios about commodity demand, agricultural yields, climate change, and policy decisions for 2019?2035. Results indicate greater confidence in modelled time-series than spatial allocation. We discuss how our approach might be best understood to be agency-based, rather than agent-based, and highlight questions more and less appropriate for this approach.

Automated summary

The increasing global demand for agricultural commodities has driven local land use/cover change and agricultural production in Brazil during the 21st century. CRAFTY-Brazil is a LUCC model representing the production of multiple agricultural commodities, taking into account spatially explicit and temporally contingent processes in the nearly four million km2 Brazilian study area.