期刊
ENERGY POLICY
卷 152, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.enpol.2021.112216
关键词
Energy policy; New societal trends; European targets 2050; Energy efficiency; Energy demand; Energy scenarios
资金
- The Coalition for Energy Savings as part of the project Developing a 2050 Energy Efficiency Vision
- European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the project NewTRENDs [893311]
New societal trends such as digitalization, sharing economy, and consumer awareness will have a significant impact on future energy demand and require policies that focus on reducing energy demand. Research shows that these trends can influence future energy demand beyond mere techno-economic potentials.
New societal trends are unfolding, such as digitalization, sharing economy and consumer awareness. They will highly influence future energy demand and, depending on their realization, enhance or counteract projected energy efficiency gains. Therefore, these trends have to be accompanied by policies with a strong focus on reducing energy demand (including Energy Efficiency First). This work analyzes quantitatively for all sectors how New Societal Trends interact with energy efficiency (policies). An extensive consultation with European experts identified 12 new societal trends that are likely to shape future energy demand. Based on these, four energy demand scenarios were developed for 2050. Using literature review and expert consultations, the impacts on all sectors were evaluated taking these trends explicitly into account. The results show that New Societal Trends can have a crucial impact on future energy demand beyond mere techno-economic potentials. In the best case scenario, New Trends Efficient, they can reduce final energy demand by 67% compared to the EU Baseline scenario in 2050. While in the Worst Case scenario, they could increase final energy demand by 40%. This paper opens up the discussion on how New Societal Trends will shape future energy demand and emphasizes the crucial role of policy-making therein.
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