The impact of variable renewable energy resources on power system reliability

Transitioning the electric power sector to rely more on wind and solar photovoltaics (WPV) has long been cited as a potential solution to reducing harmful greenhouse gas emissions associated with fossil fuel electricity production. An under-explored implication of this transition, however, is whether increasing the amount of net generation supplied by WPV negatively impacts power system reliability? In this paper, we empirically investigate the preceding question using an unbalanced panel dataset of utility-scale operations between 2013 and 2017. Disruptions in power system reliability are measured by the frequency and duration of power system disruptions experienced by end-consumers. Results suggest net generation from WPV, on average, has a significant positive impact on the length of power system disruptions experienced, but only at low levels of net generation from WPV. As net generation from WPV increases, the duration of power system disruptions decreases. To provide insight into the policy implications of these results, we forecast disruptions in power system reliability, assuming different renewable energy policy scenarios for states across the United States with active renewable support policies in place. We estimate the economic costs of forecasted disruptions using an open-source, interruption cost estimate calculator.

Automated summary

Increasing net generation from wind and solar photovoltaics (WPV) may have a positive impact on power system reliability, particularly at low levels, with disruptions decreasing as net generation from WPV increases. Policy implications of these results are discussed, along with estimates of the economic costs of forecasted disruptions using an open-source, interruption cost estimate calculator.