Positive Correlations between Short-Term and Average Long-Term Fluctuations in Wind Power Output

Wind power has been increasingly deployed in the last decade to decarbonize the electricity sector. Wind power output changes intermittently depending on weather conditions. In electrical power systems with high shares of variable renewable energy sources, such as wind power, system operators aim to respond flexibly to fluctuations in output. Here, we investigated very short-term fluctuations, short-term fluctuations (STFs), and long-term fluctuations (LTFs) in wind power output by analyzing historical output data for two northern and one southern balancing areas in Japan. We found a relationship between STFs and the average LTFs. The percentiles of the STFs in each month are approximated by linear functions of the monthly average LTFs. Furthermore, the absolute value of the slope of this function decreases with wind power capacity in the balancing area. The LTFs reflect the trend in wind power output. The results indicate that the flexibility required for power systems can be estimated based on wind power predictions. This finding could facilitate the design of the balancing market in Japan.

Automated summary

This study investigated short-term fluctuations, long-term fluctuations, and their relationships in wind power output in different regions of Japan. The results showed a correlation between short-term fluctuations and long-term fluctuations, which is influenced by wind power capacity in the region. This finding suggests that power system flexibility can be estimated based on wind power predictions, which could potentially facilitate the design of the balancing market in Japan.