SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia Predicts Clinical Deterioration and Extrapulmonary Complications from COVID-19

Measurement of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 RNA from the plasma of patients with coronavirus disease 2019, using digital polymerase chain reaction, can predict disease severity, clinical deterioration, and extrapulmonary complications and may help guide patient triage and management. Background The determinants of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) disease severity and extrapulmonary complications (EPCs) are poorly understood. We characterized relationships between severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNAemia and disease severity, clinical deterioration, and specific EPCs. Methods We used quantitative and digital polymerase chain reaction (qPCR and dPCR) to quantify SARS-CoV-2 RNA from plasma in 191 patients presenting to the emergency department with COVID-19. We recorded patient symptoms, laboratory markers, and clinical outcomes, with a focus on oxygen requirements over time. We collected longitudinal plasma samples from a subset of patients. We characterized the role of RNAemia in predicting clinical severity and EPCs using elastic net regression. Results Of SARS-CoV-2-positive patients, 23.0% (44 of 191) had viral RNA detected in plasma by dPCR, compared with 1.4% (2 of 147) by qPCR. Most patients with serial measurements had undetectable RNAemia within 10 days of symptom onset, reached maximum clinical severity within 16 days, and symptom resolution within 33 days. Initially RNAemic patients were more likely to manifest severe disease (odds ratio, 6.72 [95% confidence interval, 2.45-19.79]), worsening of disease severity (2.43 [1.07-5.38]), and EPCs (2.81 [1.26-6.36]). RNA loads were correlated with maximum severity (r = 0.47 [95% confidence interval, .20-.67]). Conclusions dPCR is more sensitive than qPCR for the detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNAemia, which is a robust predictor of eventual COVID-19 severity and oxygen requirements, as well as EPCs. Because many COVID-19 therapies are initiated on the basis of oxygen requirements, RNAemia on presentation might serve to direct early initiation of appropriate therapies for the patients most likely to deteriorate.

Automated summary

Measurement of SARS-CoV-2 RNA from the plasma of COVID-19 patients using digital polymerase chain reaction can predict disease severity, clinical deterioration, and extrapulmonary complications. It may guide patient triage and management effectively.