Examining the driving factors of industrial CO2 emissions in Chinese cities using geographically weighted regression model

The industrial sector is the sector with the largest CO2 emissions, and to reduce overall CO2 emissions, analysis of the impact factors holds significance. Based on the 2015 industrial CO2 emissions of 282 cities in China combined with economic and social data and a geographically weighted regression model, we analysed the characteristics of the spatial distribution of industrial CO2 emissions and the spatial heterogeneity of influencing factors. The results show that China's urban industrial CO2 emissions present a significant spatial agglomeration state that includes Shandong, Beijing, Tianjin, Shanghai, Zhejiang and Jiangsu, and the core of the coastal areas forms a high-high concentration; a low-low aggregation is formed in less developed areas such as Guizhou, Yunnan, Sichuan and Guangxi. The industrial scale, share of industry in gross domestic product, share of service industry in gross domestic product and level of economic development are factors that promote industrial CO2 emissions. The technological innovation, population density and government intervention are important factors that inhibit industrial CO2 emissions. Among them, the share of service industry in gross domestic product is the most significant factor in the increase of industrial CO2 emissions and the government intervention is the most significant factor in the reduction in industrial CO2 emissions. The effects of FDI, fixed asset investment and financial development are not significant. More importantly, the effects of influencing factors vary across cities, showing obvious spatial heterogeneity.

Automated summary

The industrial sector in China has the largest CO2 emissions, with factors such as industrial scale, share of service industry, and economic development level influencing emissions. Different cities show significant spatial heterogeneity in the effects of these factors.