Interrupting vaccination policies can greatly spread SARS-CoV-2 and enhance mortality from COVID-19 disease: The AstraZeneca case for France and Italy

Several European countries have suspended the inoculation of the AstraZeneca vaccine out of suspicion that it causes deep vein thrombosis. In this letter, we report some Fermi estimates performed using a stochastic model aimed at making a risk-benefit analysis of the interruption of the delivery of the AstraZeneca vaccine in France and Italy. Our results clearly show that excess deaths due to the interruption of the vaccination campaign injections largely overrun those due to thrombosis even in worst case scenarios of frequency and gravity of the vaccine side effects.

Automated summary

The suspension of vaccination campaigns can lead to more excess deaths, even when taking into account the potential side effects of the vaccine.