Variation in predator diet and prey size affects perceived impacts to salmon species of high conservation concern

Management of protected species is difficult when objectives include the recovery of both predator and its prey. Ideally, identifying trade-offs between competing objectives involves evaluating management alternatives with a quantitative model that integrates information on both species, but data are often limited. We used new predator diet data and simulation modeling to update our understanding of seal predation on juvenile Chinook (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) and coho salmon (Oncorhynchus kisutch) in the Puget Sound. Under prey size assumptions used by previous studies, estimates suggest predation could be a significant source of mortality for Chinook salmon (mean: 37% of ocean age-0 juveniles), but varied considerably among years (range of median estimates: 22%-49%). However, when we estimated prey size from otoliths recovered from seal scats, the impact (numbers of fish consumed) decreased by 71%. Predation on coho salmon was estimated to be relatively low under both scenarios (6%-8% of ocean age-0 juveniles) with a 21% decrease in consumption using otolith-derived prey size. Our analysis highlights the importance of updating model inputs and re-evaluating assumptions of multi-species models used for ecosystem-based fisheries management.

Automated summary

Management of protected species becomes challenging when aiming for the recovery of both predator and prey. By updating their understanding of seal predation on juvenile Chinook and Coho salmon in Puget Sound using new predator diet data and simulation modeling, researchers found significant variability in predation estimates. The analysis highlights the importance of updating model inputs and re-evaluating assumptions for ecosystem-based fisheries management.