Disentangling dynamical and thermodynamical contributions to the record-breaking heatwave over Central Europe in June 2019

An unprecedented heatwave hit central Europe in June 2019 and set record-breaking high temperatures over approximately one-third areas of Europe. The relative role of dynamics and thermodynamics in anchoring this extreme heatwave is investigated via the flow analogue method. It reveals that dynamical processes contributed to 64.7% of the observed temperature anomalies of the event, and thermodynamical processes contributed to the remaining 35.3%. Nevertheless, thermodynamical changes were favorable towards the occurrence of similar events over central Europe in recent decades, whereas dynamical changes acted oppositely. In addition, their relative contributions strongly fluctuated with time, imposing challenges to project how heatwaves will behave on a regional scale.

Automated summary

The study reveals that the relative roles of dynamics and thermodynamics in the central Europe heatwave varied over time, with thermodynamic changes favoring such events. Dynamical changes, on the other hand, acted oppositely. This fluctuation in relative contributions poses challenges in predicting heatwave behavior on a regional scale.