期刊
URBAN CLIMATE
卷 36, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.uclim.2021.100784
关键词
heat stress; heat indices; local climate zone; probability; statistical modelling
资金
- Department of Science & Technology (DST), Government of India
- Climate Change Programme of SPLICE Division [DST-CCP project] [DST/CCP/HCB/126/2017(G)]
The study analyzed the heat stress levels in the Indian city of Nagpur by mapping LCZs and found significant differences in temperature regimes and heat stress levels across different zones. This information can be crucial for targeted heat response planning and heat stress mitigation strategies in heat-prone areas.
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) report highlights the projected increase in heat wave (HW) frequency, intensity, and duration. Globally, HW events have caused massive deaths in the past. India has also experienced severe HWs and thousands have reportedly died during the past decade. The study uses the Local Climate Zone (LCZ) classification developed by Stewart and Oke (2012) for evaluating heat stress at the city level during the summer period. Stationery surveys were conducted to collect micro-meteorological data in different LCZs. The study analyses the unique behaviour of mapped LCZs in Nagpur, a tropical landlocked Indian city using widely adopted heat indices (heat index and humidex). It investigates two kinds of probabilities, the distribution of heat stress levels in a particular LCZ and how vulnerable are various LCZs to a given heat stress level. It adopts a statistical approach fitting a predictive logit model to estimate the probability of heat stress in various LCZs. The results show that temperature regimes differ significantly across the LCZs. Secondly, heat stress varies greatly depending upon the LCZs. The mapping scheme and the corresponding heat stress provides indispensable information for targeted heat response planning and heat stress mitigation strategies in heat-prone areas.
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