Relationship between MODIS Derived NDVI and Yield of Cereals for Selected European Countries

In this study, the relationships between normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) obtained based on MODIS satellite data and grain yield of all cereals, wheat and barley at a country level were analyzed. The analysis was performed by using data from 2010-2018 for 20 European countries, where percentage of cereals is high (at least 35% of the arable land). The analysis was performed for each country separately and for all of the collected data together. The relationships between NDVI and cumulative NDVI (cNDVI) were analyzed by using linear regression. Relationships between NDVI in early spring and grain yield of cereals were very strong for Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland and Slovakia. This means that the yield prediction for these countries can be as far back as 4 months before the harvest. The increase of NDVI in early spring was related to the increase of grain yield by about 0.5-1.6 t/ha. The cumulative of averaged NDVI gives more stable prediction of grain yield per season. For France and Belgium, the relationships between NDVI and grain yield were very weak.

Automated summary

This study analyzed the relationships between NDVI and grain yield in 20 European countries, finding strong correlations in Croatia, Czechia, Germany, Hungary, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, and Slovakia, allowing for early yield prediction. Weak relationships were observed in France and Belgium.