Computer Tomography Radiomics-Based Nomogram in the Survival Prediction for Brain Metastases From Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Underwent Whole Brain Radiotherapy

Prognostic parameters and models were believed to be helpful in improving the treatment outcome for patients with brain metastasis (BM). The purpose of this study was to investigate the feasibility of computer tomography (CT) radiomics based nomogram to predict the survival of patients with BM from non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) treated with whole brain radiotherapy (WBRT). A total of 195 patients with BM from NSCLC who underwent WBRT from January 2012 to December 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. Radiomics features were extracted and selected from pretherapeutic CT images with least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression. A nomogram was developed and evaluated by integrating radiomics features and clinical factors to predict the survival of individual patient. Five radiomics features were screened out from 105 radiomics features according to the LASSO Cox regression. According to the optimal cutoff value of radiomics score (Rad-score), patients were stratified into low-risk (Rad-score <= -0.14) and high-risk (Rad-score > -0.14) groups. Multivariable analysis indicated that sex, karnofsky performance score (KPS) and Rad-score were independent predictors for overall survival (OS). The concordance index (C-index) of the nomogram in the training cohort and validation cohort was 0.726 and 0.660, respectively. An area under curve (AUC) of 0.786 and 0.788 was achieved for the short-term and long-term survival prediction, respectively. In conclusion, the nomogram based on radiomics features from CT images and clinical factors was feasible to predict the OS of BM patients from NSCLC who underwent WBRT.

Automated summary

This study developed a radiomics nomogram to predict the survival of brain metastasis patients from non-small cell lung cancer who underwent whole brain radiotherapy, based on CT images and clinical factors. The nomogram showed good performance in predicting short-term and long-term survival, with high concordance index and area under curve.