Modeling phenological responses of Inner Mongolia grassland species to regional climate change

Plant phenology is an important indicator of ecosystem dynamics and services. However, little is understood of its responses to climate change, particularly in ecologically sensitive regions such as arid and semi-arid grasslands. In this study, we analyzed a long-term climate and plant phenology dataset of thirteen grassland species in the Inner Mongolia of China, collected during 1981-2011 time period, to understand temporal patterns of plant phenology and then developed a simple chilling-adjusted physiological model to simulate phenological responses of each plant species to climate change. The results of regional climate analysis suggested that the minimum temperature was increasing at a greater rate than mean and maximum temperatures in the region and the climate variability had significant impacts on vegetation phenology. Chilling from an early stage in spring in general slowed down the phenological development in most plant species, although there were some inconsistencies among sites and years. Specifically, we found lower precipitation during green-up resulted in delayed flowering, which may attribute to plant self-adjustment strategy to respond changes in climate. These climate dependent phenologies were characterized by a simple physiological model. Scenario analysis suggested that by 2071-2100 significant shifts in plant phenology are expected in Inner Mongolia, including as much as 6-11 days earlier in green-up time and 8-11 days shorter in growing season due to earlier senescence.