期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL POLLUTION
卷 208, 期 -, 页码 66-73出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envpol.2015.09.041
关键词
Climate change; Temperature; Mortality; Projection
资金
- Australia National Health and Medical Research Council [APP1030259]
- University of Queensland Research Fellowship
We estimated net annual temperature-related mortality in Brisbane, Sydney and Melbourne in Australia using 62 global climate model projections under three IPPC SRES CO2 emission scenarios (A2, A1B and B1). In all cities, all scenarios resulted in increases in summer temperature-related deaths for future decades, and decreases in winter temperature-related deaths. However, Brisbane and Sydney will increase the net annual temperature-related deaths in the future, while a slight decrease will happen in Melbourne. Additionally, temperature-related mortality will largely increase beyond the summer (including January, February, March, November and December) in Brisbane and Sydney, while temperature-related mortality will largely decrease beyond the winter in Melbourne. In conclusion, temperature increases for Australia are expected to result in a decreased burden of cold-related mortality and an increased burden of heat-related mortality, but the balance of these,differences varied by city. In particular, the seasonal patterns in temperature-related deaths will be shifted. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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