Decision tree based ensemble machine learning approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping

The concept of leveraging the predictive capacity of predisposing factors for landslide susceptibility (LS) modeling has been continuously improved in recent work focusing on computational and machine learning algorithms. This paper explores the predictive capacity of different approaches to LS modelling using artificial intelligence. The key objective of this study is to estimate a LS map for the Taleghan-Alamut basin of Iran using Credal Decision Tree (CDT)-based (i.e. CDT-Bagging, CDT-Multiboost and CDT-SubSpace) hybrid machine learning approaches, which are state-of-the-art soft computing approaches that are hardly ever utilized in the assessment of LS. In this study, we used eighteen landslide predisposing factors (LPFs) that we considered to be the most important local morphological and geo-environmental factors influencing the occurrence of landslides. We calculated the significance of each of the LPFs in the landslide susceptibility assessment using the Random Forest Method. We also employed the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve, precision, performance, map robustness measurement and selection of the best-fitting models. The results shows that, compared to the other models, the CDT-Multiboost is the excellent model in this perspective with an average area under curve (AUC) of 0.993 based on a 4-fold cross-validation. We, therefore, consider the CDT-Multiboost models to be an effective method for improving spatial prediction of LS where landslide scarps or bodies are not clearly identified during the preparation of landslide inventory maps. Therefore, it will be helpful for preparing future landslide inventory maps and mitigate landslide damages.

Automated summary

This paper explores the predictive capacity of different approaches to landslide susceptibility modeling using artificial intelligence. The results show that the CDT-Multiboost model is the excellent model with high accuracy and is effective for improving spatial prediction of landslide susceptibility.