期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 86, 期 -, 页码 184-203出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.09.020
关键词
Weed; Population dynamics; Mechanistic model; FLORSYS; Validation; Cropping system; Uncertainty analysis
类别
资金
- research programme Assessing and reducing environmental risks from plant protection products - French Ministries in charge of Ecology and Agriculture [29000683]
- EU [FP7-KBBE-2011-5-CP-CSA]
- French project CoSAC [ANR-14-CE18-0007]
- French Ministry of Agriculture
- ANR OGM VIGIWEED [ANR-07-POGM-003-01]
Weed dynamics models are needed to test prospective cropping systems but are rarely evaluated with independent data (validated). Here, we evaluated the FLORSYS model which quantifies the effects of cropping systems and pedoclimate on multispecific weed dynamics with a daily time step. We adapted existing validation methodologies and uncertainty analyses to account for multi-specific, multi-annual and diverse outputs, focusing on missing input data, incomplete and imprecise weed time series. Field data ranged from entirely monitored cropping system trials to annual snapshots recorded on farm fields by the French Biovigilance-Flore network. FLORSYS satisfactorily predicted weed seed bank, plant densities and crop yields, at daily and multi-annual scales, at well monitored sites. It overestimated plant biomass and underestimated total flora density. Missing processes (photoperiod dependency in flowering, crop:weed competition for nitrogen) and inadequately predicted scenarios (weed dynamics in untilled fields, floras with summer-emerging species) were identified. Guidelines for model use were proposed. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
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