期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 84, 期 -, 页码 155-164出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2016.06.011
关键词
Scenario diversity analysis; Vulnerability based scenario analysis; Climate change; Scenario discovery; Robust decision making
类别
资金
- Swedish Foundation for Strategic Environmental Research (Mistra)
- European Commission [603416]
- Network for Sustainable Climate Risk Management (SCRiM) under U.S. National Science Foundation [GEO-1240507]
- UK Department for International Development (DfID)
- Nordic Development Fund (NDF)
- Kredit Anstalt fur Entwicklung (KfW)
- Agence Francaise pour Developmment (AFD)
- Bank-Netherland Partnership Program (BNPP)
- Trust Fund for Environmentally and Socially Sustainable Development (TFESSD)
- Directorate For Geosciences [1240507] Funding Source: National Science Foundation
Computer simulation models can generate large numbers of scenarios, far more than can be effectively utilized in most decision support applications. How can one best select a small number of scenarios to consider? One approach calls for choosing scenarios that illuminate vulnerabilities of proposed policies. Another calls for choosing scenarios that span a diverse range of futures. This paper joins these two approaches for the first time, proposing an optimization-based method for choosing a small number of relevant scenarios that combine both vulnerability and diversity. The paper applies the method to a real case involving climate resilient infrastructure for three African river basins (Volta, Orange and Zambezi). Introducing selection criteria in a stepwise manner helps examine how different criteria influence the choice of scenarios. The results suggest that combining vulnerability- and diversity-based criteria can provide a systematic and transparent method for scenario selection. (C) 2016 Published by Elsevier Ltd.
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