期刊
ENVIRONMENTAL MODELLING & SOFTWARE
卷 79, 期 -, 页码 322-333出版社
ELSEVIER SCI LTD
DOI: 10.1016/j.envsoft.2015.12.014
关键词
Cross-impact balance; Multi-scale scenarios; Socioeconomic scenarios; Shared socioeconomic pathways; Climate change; Global change
类别
资金
- National Science Foundation
- Energy Council of Canada
- University of Waterloo Humanities
- Social Sciences Endowment Fund
New scenarios for climate change research connect climate model results based on Representative Concentration Pathways to nested interpretations of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways. Socioeconomic drivers of emissions and determinants of impacts are now decoupled from climate model outputs. To retain scenario credibility, more internally consistent linking across scales must be achieved. This paper addresses this need, demonstrating a modification to cross impact balances (CIB), a method for systematically deriving qualitative socioeconomic scenarios. Traditionally CIB is performed with one cross impact matrix. This poses limitations, as more than a few dozen scenario elements with sufficiently varied outcomes can become computationally infeasible to comprehensively explore. Through this paper, we introduce the concept of 'linked CIB', which takes the structure of judgements for how scenario elements interact to partition a single cross-impact matrix into multiple smaller matrices. Potentially, this enables analysis of large CIB matrices and ensures internally consistent linking of scenario elements across scales. (C) 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd. This is an open access article under the CC BY-NC-ND license
作者
我是这篇论文的作者
点击您的名字以认领此论文并将其添加到您的个人资料中。
推荐
暂无数据