期刊
STRUCTURAL CONTROL & HEALTH MONITORING
卷 28, 期 5, 页码 -出版社
JOHN WILEY & SONS LTD
DOI: 10.1002/stc.2716
关键词
arch dam; deformation behavior; regression panel modeling; risk probabilistic assessment
资金
- National Natural Science Foundation of China [51779086, 52079046, 51739003]
The study proposes a method for monitoring the deformation of arch dams based on a regression panel model, establishing an innovative functional relationship between measured values and real-time risk probabilistic function, providing a new approach to arch dam safety assessment.
The deformations of ultrahigh arch dams can comprehensively indicate the dynamic variations of their structural behavior to judge the normal or not for timely discovering anomalies. First, the panel data features on the deformation behavior are extracted to effectively indicate the overall structural evolution of the Jinping I arch dam combing with the time series and the cross-section series. Afterwards, a regression panel model (RPM) on the multi-dimensional variables is proposed to model the deformation panel data consisted of multi-monitoring points synchronously. Subsequently, an innovative functional relationship between the measured values and the real-time risk probabilistic function is established due to the RPM estimation accuracy. In order to estimate the risk probability of the whole arch dam, the Copula function is used to build a multivariate joint probability distribution function to indicate the correlation among the random variables. The proposed methods are validated by an application on the Jinping I arch dam to evaluate its risk probability, which explores a novel approach for the arch dam safety assessment.
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