期刊
SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
卷 760, 期 -, 页码 -出版社
ELSEVIER
DOI: 10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.143391
关键词
COVID-19; Particulate matter; Reproduction ratio; Sulfate nitrate ammonium; Black carbon; NAAQS
资金
- Dean's office of the McKelvey School of Engineering at Washington University in St. Louis
- US National Science Foundation [AGS-1455215, AGS-1926817]
It has been suggested that long-term exposure to air pollution, particularly PM2.5, can increase susceptibility to COVID-19. Studies have shown that higher levels of PM2.5 and secondary inorganic composition are associated with increased COVID-19 transmission rates, highlighting the importance of regulating pollution levels to control the spread of the disease.
It has been posited that populations being exposed to long-term air pollution aremore susceptible to COVID-19. Evidence is emerging that long-termexposure to ambient PM2.5 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter 2.5 mu m or less) associates with higher COVID-19 mortality rates, but whether it also associates with the speed at which the disease is capable of spreading in a population is unknown. Here, we establish the association between long-term exposure to ambient PM2.5 in the United States (US) and COVID-19 basic reproduction ratio R-0-a dimensionless epidemicmeasure of the rapidity of disease spread through a population. We inferred state-level R-0 values using a state-of-the-art susceptible, exposed, infected, and recovered (SEIR) model initialized with COVID19 epidemiological data corresponding to the periodMarch 2-April 30. This period was characterized by a rapid surge in COVID-19 cases across the US states, implementation of strict social distancing measures, and a significant drop in outdoor air pollution. We find that an increase of 1 mu g/m(3) in PM2.5 levels belowcurrent national ambient air quality standards associates with an increase of 0.25 in R-0 (95% CI: 0.048-0.447). A 10% increase in secondary inorganic composition, sulfate-nitrate-ammonium, in PM2.5 associates with similar to 10% increase in R-0 by 0.22 (95% CI: 0.083-0.352), and presence of black carbon (soot) in the ambient environment moderates this relationship. We considered several potential confounding factors in our analysis, including gaseous air pollutants and socio-economical and meteorological conditions. Our results underscore two policy implications - first, regulatory standards need to be better guided by exploring the concentration-response relationships near the lower end of the PM2.5 air quality distribution; and second, pollution regulations need to be continually enforced for combustion emissions that largely determine secondary inorganic aerosol formation. (C) 2020 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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