Seismic fragility analysis of concrete dams: A state-of-the-art review

Given the recent impetus for probabilistic based analyses of dams, and the limited previous attempts to address this timely question, there is a need for a comprehensive assessment of the disparate previous work. Hence, this paper provides a comprehensive and comparative review of major (over twenty) publications addressing seismic fragility analyses of concrete dams. First, fundamental concepts are reviewed and clarified to facilitate comprehension of the later part. Then, papers are individually scrutinized, key figures redrawn to provide a uniform basis for compatison. When deemed necessary, additional clarifications and cross referencing with equations in the first part are provided. Next, tables summarizing the various methods are presented, on the basis of which the authors provide a set of minimum requirements for seismic fragility curve/surface development. It is noted that the vast majority of the papers still relied on linear analyses with simplified limit states. On the other hands few papers pursued a nonlinear approach and addressed the collapse mechanism and/or hybrid limit state definitions. Finally, the contextual framework within which fragility curves are used is presented within the scope of a performance based earthquake engineering analysis of a concrete dam. (C) 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.