期刊
NATURE
卷 590, 期 7846, 页码 433-+出版社
NATURE RESEARCH
DOI: 10.1038/s41586-021-03277-w
关键词
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资金
- NASA Upper Atmosphere Research Program [NNX16AC98G, NNX16AC96G, NNX16AC97G]
- UK Department for Business, Energy AMP
- Industrial Strategy (BEIS) [1537/06/2018]
- Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme - UK's Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy
- Australian Bureau of Meteorology
- Refrigerant Reclaim Australia (RRA)
- Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) [NE/M014851/1, NE/N016548/1]
- NERC Independent Research Fellowship [NE/L010992/1]
- National Research Foundation of Korea (NRF) - Korean government (MSIT) [2020R1A2C3003774]
- Ministry of the Environment of Japan
- Swiss National Supercomputing Centre (CSCS) [s862]
- Australian Department of Agriculture, Water and the Environment (DAWE)
- Met Office Hadley Centre Climate Programme - UK's Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs
- CSIRO
- National Research Foundation of Korea [2020R1A2C3003774] Funding Source: Korea Institute of Science & Technology Information (KISTI), National Science & Technology Information Service (NTIS)
- NERC [NE/L010992/1, NE/L013088/1, NE/S004211/1, NE/V002996/1, NE/I021365/1] Funding Source: UKRI
Research shows that CFC-11 emissions in eastern China increased unexpectedly after 2013, but have since decreased in 2019, avoiding a delay in ozone-layer recovery. The study also reveals that emissions of related substances increased and decreased in parallel with CFC-11 reductions, indicating production activities in eastern China after the global phase-out.
Emissions of ozone-depleting substances, including trichlorofluoromethane (CFC-11), have decreased since the mid-1980s in response to the Montreal Protocol(1,2). In recent years, an unexpected increase in CFC-11 emissions beginning in 2013 has been reported, with much of the global rise attributed to emissions from eastern China(3,4). Here we use high-frequency atmospheric mole fraction observations from Gosan, South Korea and Hateruma, Japan, together with atmospheric chemical transport-model simulations, to investigate regional CFC-11 emissions from eastern China. We find that CFC-11 emissions returned to pre-2013 levels in 2019 (5.0 +/- 1.0 gigagrams per year in 2019, compared to 7.2 +/- 1.5 gigagrams per year for 2008-2012, +/- 1 standard deviation), decreasing by 10 +/- 3 gigagrams per year since 2014-2017. Furthermore, we find that in this region, carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) and dichlorodifluoromethane (CFC-12) emissions-potentially associated with CFC-11 production-were higher than expected after 2013 and then declined one to two years before the CFC-11 emissions reduction. This suggests that CFC-11 production occurred in eastern China after the mandated global phase-out, and that there was a subsequent decline in production during 2017-2018. We estimate that the amount of the CFC-11 bank (the amount of CFC-11 produced, but not yet emitted) in eastern China is up to 112 gigagrams larger in 2019 compared to pre-2013 levels, probably as a result of recent production. Nevertheless, it seems that any substantial delay in ozone-layer recovery has been avoided, perhaps owing to timely reporting(3,4) and subsequent action by industry and government in China(5,6). Atmospheric data and chemical-transport modelling show that CFC-11 emissions from eastern China have again decreased, after increasing in 2013-2017, and a delay in ozone-layer recovery has probably been avoided.
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