Individual-based Markov model of virus diffusion: Comparison with COVID-19 incubation period, serial interval and regional time series

A Markov chain individual-based model for virus diffusion is investigated. Both the virus growth within an individual and the complexity of the contagion within a population are taken into account. A careful work of parameter choice is performed. The model captures very well the statistical variability of quantities like the incubation period, the serial interval and the time series of infected people in Tuscany towns.

Automated summary

A Markov chain individual-based model is used to study virus diffusion, taking into account virus growth within individuals and the complexity of contagion within a population. Careful parameter choice captures the statistical variability of quantities like incubation period, serial interval, and time series of infected people in Tuscany towns accurately.