Mapping method of rainfall-induced landslide hazards by infiltration and slope stability analysis A case study in Marumori, Miyagi, Japan, during the October 2019 Typhoon Hagibis

By utilizing the Green-Ampt infiltration equation and the infinite slope stability model, a method for analyzing shallow slope failures caused by rainfall is developed. With rainfall intensity, soil characteristics, and topography, the modified Green-Ampt infiltration equation is used to estimate the rainfall infiltration capacity and depth of infiltration in a given slope. Assigning the calculated depth of infiltration as the depth of slip surface, the factor of safety of the slope is obtained through the infinite slope stability model. A time-series visualization map of the space-time varying factor of safety is generated when the method is implemented with the aid of Geographic Information System (GIS) software. The model is applied and validated with the landslides that occurred during the October 2019 Typhoon Hagibis in Marumori, Japan. The model results show good agreement with the reported time and depths of failure, and the analysis of the spatial distribution of predicted failures yielded receiver operating characteristic-area under the curve (ROC-AUC) value of 0.90. The applicability of the model can be extended for post-analysis, real-time, or projected assessment of slope stability, depending on the nature of input rainfall data (e.g., historical, real-time, forecast, hypothetical).

Automated summary

A method for analyzing shallow slope failures caused by rainfall is developed through the use of the Green-Ampt infiltration equation and the infinite slope stability model. The model is applied and validated with landslides that occurred during Typhoon Hagibis in Japan, showing good agreement with reported failure depths and times. The applicability of the model extends to post-analysis, real-time, or projected assessment of slope stability based on input rainfall data.