Analysis of the importance of structural change in non-energy intensive industry for prospective modelling: The French case

A large number of studies have been conducted on the contribution of technological progress and structural change to the evolution of aggregate energy intensity in the industrial sector. However, no analyses have been done to examine theses changes in the non-energy intensive industry in France. We analyzed their importance in French industry with respect to their energy intensity, energy costs, value added, labour and the diffusion of production sites by using data at the 3-digit level with 236 sectors. Using a new decomposition method that gives no residual, this paper attempted to examine, over 10 years from 1996 to 2005, the changes that occurred in an area that has been neglected in energy analysis. We found that structural change had an overwhelming effect on the decline of aggregate energy intensity. Furthermore, we found that the higher the level of sector disaggregation, the more significant the changes that can be attributed to structural change, due to the homogeneity of this industrial group. The results of our study show that it is important to take into account the effects of structural change in bottom-up modelling exercises so as to improve the accuracy of energy demand forecasting for policy makers and scientists. (C) 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.